http://hn.vernccvbvyi5qhfzyqengccj7lkove6bjot2xhh5kajhwvidqafczrad.onion/stories/38519277
Clearly, ARIMA is not a causally realistic model. Criminals don't look at last year's crime rates and decide whether to commit a crime based on that. The assumption is that, whatever actually does cause crime, it tends to happen at fairly similar levels year to year, that is, 2020 should be more different than 2010 than it is different from 2019.